Bank of Canada Rate Announcement Jul 12th, 2023

Cynthia Dreger • July 12, 2023

Bank of Canada raises policy rate 25 basis points, continues quantitative tightening.


FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE

Media Relations

Ottawa, Ontario

July 12, 2023


The Bank of Canada today increased its target for the overnight rate to 5%, with the Bank Rate at 5¼% and the deposit rate at 5%. The Bank is also continuing its policy of quantitative tightening.


Global inflation is easing, with lower energy prices and a decline in goods price inflation. However, robust demand and tight labour markets are causing persistent inflationary pressures in services. Economic growth has been stronger than expected, especially in the United States, where consumer and business spending has been surprisingly resilient. After a surge in early 2023, China’s economic growth is softening, with slowing exports and ongoing weakness in its property sector. Growth in the euro area is effectively stalled: while the service sector continues to grow, manufacturing is contracting. Global financial conditions have tightened, with bond yields up in North America and Europe as major central banks signal further interest rate increases may be needed to combat inflation.


The Bank’s July Monetary Policy Report (MPR) projects the global economy will grow by around 2.8% this year and 2.4% in 2024, followed by 2.7% growth in 2025.


Canada’s economy has been stronger than expected, with more momentum in demand. Consumption growth has been surprisingly strong at 5.8% in the first quarter. While the Bank expects consumer spending to slow in response to the cumulative increase in interest rates, recent retail trade and other data suggest more persistent excess demand in the economy. In addition, the housing market has seen some pickup. New construction and real estate listings are lagging demand, which is adding pressure to prices. In the labour market, there are signs of more availability of workers, but conditions remain tight, and wage growth has been around 4-5%. Strong population growth from immigration is adding both demand and supply to the economy: newcomers are helping to ease the shortage of workers while also boosting consumer spending and adding to demand for housing.


As higher interest rates continue to work their way through the economy, the Bank expects economic growth to slow, averaging around 1% through the second half of this year and the first half of next year. This implies real GDP growth of 1.8% in 2023 and 1.2% in 2024. The economy will move into modest excess supply early next year before growth picks up to 2.4% in 2025.


Inflation in Canada eased to 3.4% in May, a substantial and welcome drop from its peak of 8.1% last summer. While CPI inflation has come down largely as expected so far this year, the downward momentum has come more from lower energy prices, and less from easing underlying inflation. With the large price increases of last year out of the annual data, there will be less near-term downward momentum in CPI inflation. Moreover, with three-month rates of core inflation running around 3½-4% since last September, underlying price pressures appear to be more persistent than anticipated. This is reinforced by the Bank’s business surveys, which find businesses are still increasing their prices more frequently than normal.


In the July MPR projection, CPI inflation is forecast to hover around 3% for the next year before gradually declining to 2% in the middle of 2025. This is a slower return to target than was forecast in the January and April projections. Governing Council remains concerned that progress towards the 2% target could stall, jeopardizing the return to price stability.


In light of the accumulation of evidence that excess demand and elevated core inflation are both proving more persistent, and taking into account its revised outlook for economic activity and inflation, Governing Council decided to increase the policy interest rate to 5%. Quantitative tightening is complementing the restrictive stance of monetary policy and normalizing the Bank’s balance sheet. Governing Council will continue to assess the dynamics of core inflation and the outlook for CPI inflation. In particular, we will be evaluating whether the evolution of excess demand, inflation expectations, wage growth and corporate pricing behaviour are consistent with achieving the 2% inflation target. The Bank remains resolute in its commitment to restoring price stability for Canadians.


Information note

The next scheduled date for announcing the overnight rate target is September 6, 2023. The Bank will publish its next full outlook for the economy and inflation, including risks to the projection, in the Monetary Policy Report on October 25, 2023.


Read the July 12th, 2023 Monetary Policy Report


CYNTHIA DREGER

New To Mortgage Financing? Get Pre-Approved

By Cynthia Dreger • February 19, 2025
If you’re thinking about buying a property, but you’re not sure where to start, you’ve come to the right place! Let’s discuss how getting pre-approved is one of the first steps in your home buying journey. Just like you wouldn’t go into a restaurant without knowing if you have enough money to buy your meal, it’s not a good idea to be shopping for a home without an understanding of how much you can afford. You can browse MLS from your couch all you want beforehand, but when you’re ready to start looking at properties with a real estate agent, you need a pre-approval. Now, as there may be some confusion around exactly what a pre-approval does and doesn’t do, let’s discuss it in detail. First of all, a pre-approval is not magic, and it’s not binding. A pre-approval is not a contract that will guarantee mortgage financing despite changes to your financial situation. Instead, a pre-approval is simply the first look at your overall financial health that will point you in the right direction before you’re ready to apply for a mortgage. Said in another way, a pre-approval is a map that gives you the plan to secure an actual approval. After going through the pre-approval process, you’ll know how to qualify for a mortgage and at what amount. When considering your mortgage application, lenders look at your income, credit history, assets vs liabilities, and the property itself. Working through a pre-approval will cover all these areas and will uncover any major obstacles that might be in your way of securing financing. The best time to secure a pre-approval is as soon as possible; it’s never a bad idea to have a plan. Here are a few of the obstacles that a pre-approval can uncover: You’ve recently changed jobs, and you’re still on probation Your income relies heavily on extra shifts or commissions You’re unaware of factual mistakes or collections on your credit report You don’t have an established credit profile You don’t have enough money saved for a downpayment Additional debt is lowering the amount you qualify for Really anything you don't know that you don't know Even if you believe you have all your ducks in a row, working through the pre-approval process with an independent mortgage professional will ensure you have the best chance of securing a final approval. As a point of clarity, a pre-approval is not the same as a pre-qualification. This is not typing a few things into a website, calculating some numbers, and thinking you’re all set. A pre-approval includes providing your financial information, looking at your credit report, discussing a plan for securing mortgage financing with a mortgage professional, and even submitting documents ahead of time. Mortgage financing can be a daunting process; it doesn’t have to be. Having a plan in place and doing as much as you can beforehand is essential to ensuring a smooth home buying experience. As there is no cost for getting a mortgage pre-approval, there is absolutely no risk. Consider starting the process right now! If you’d like to walk through your financial situation and get pre-approved for a mortgage, let’s talk. It would be a pleasure to work with you!

Collections Can Prevent Mortgage Financing

By Cynthia Dreger • February 12, 2025
A question that comes up from time to time when discussing mortgage financing is, “If I have collections showing on my credit bureau, will that impact my ability to get a mortgage?” The answer might have a broader implication than what you might think; let's spend a little time discussing it. Collections accounts are reported on your credit bureau when you have a debt that hasn’t been paid as agreed. Now, regardless of the reason for the collection; the collection is a result of delinquency, it’s an account you didn’t realize was in collections, or even if it’s a choice not to pay something because of moral reasons, all open collections will negatively impact your ability to secure new mortgage financing. Delinquency If you’re really late on paying on a loan, credit card, line of credit, or mortgage, and the lender has sent that account to collections, as they consider it a bad debt, this will certainly impact your ability to get new mortgage financing. Look at it this way, why would any lender want to extend new credit to you when you have a known history of not paying your existing debts as agreed? If you happen to be late on your payments and the collection agencies are calling, the best plan would be to deal with the issue head-on. Settle the debts as quickly as possible and work towards establishing your credit. Very few (if any) lenders will even consider your mortgage application with open collections showing on your credit report. If you’re unaware of bad debts It happens a lot more than you’d think; people applying for a mortgage are completely unaware that they have delinquent accounts on their credit report. A common reason for this is that collection agencies are hired simply because the lender can’t reach someone. Here’s an example. Let’s say you’re moving from one province to another for work, you pay the outstanding balance on your utility accounts, change your phone number, and make the move. And while you think you’ve paid the final amount owing, they read your meter, and there is $32 outstanding on your bill. As the utility company has no way of tracking you down, they send that amount to an agency that registers it on your credit report. You don't know any of this has happened and certainly would have paid the amount had you known it was due. Alternatively, with over 20% of credit reports containing some level of inaccuracy, mistakes happen. If you’ve had collections in the past, there’s a chance they might be reporting inaccurately, even if it's been paid out. So as far as your mortgage is concerned, it really doesn’t matter if the collection is a reporting error or a valid collection that you weren’t aware of. If it’s on your credit report, it’s your responsibility to prove it’s been remediated. Most lenders will accept documentation proving the account has been paid and won’t require those changes to reflect on your credit report before proceeding with a mortgage application. So how do you know if you’ve got mistakes on your credit report? Well, you can either access your credit reports on your own or talk with an independent mortgage advisor to put together a mortgage preapproval. The preapproval process will uncover any issues holding you back. If there are any collections on your bureau, you can implement a plan to fix the problem before applying for a mortgage. Moral Collections What if you have purposefully chosen not to pay a collection, fine, bill, or debt for moral reasons? Or what if that account is sitting as an unpaid collection on your credit report because you dispute the subject matter? Here are a few examples. A disputed phone or utility bill Unpaid alimony or child support Unpaid collections for traffic tickets Unpaid collections for COVID-19 fines The truth is, lenders don’t care what the collection is for; they just want to see that you’ve dealt with it. They will be reluctant to extend new mortgage financing while you have an active collection reporting on your bureau. So if you decide to take a moral stand on not paying a collection, please know that you run the risk of having that moral decision impact your ability to secure a mortgage in the future. If you have any questions about this or anything else mortgage-related, please connect anytime! It would be a pleasure to work with you!
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